Will the opposition parties like NTK, AIADMK, BJP, TVK, etc. form a pre-election alliance in Tamil Nadu on a single agenda of defeating the DMK alliance in the state assembly elections 2026?

Contrary to the belief even multiparty contests have led to the defeat of the ruling party.There is no guarantee that dmk allaiance will retain its Loksabha or 2021 assembly vote share.

All is not well in dmks camp. It has not registered a second consecutive term in its political history except 1971 when MGR was in it . The only advantage Stalin enjoys is the divided opposition.

The second is religious fundamentalism. Bjp having tasted blood in Loksabha by polling 10+% will channelise more communal disturbances like Kandamalai vs Sikandar hills to further its growth like the northern states . This is a harmful concept for TN

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He concluded his interview by saying if at all TVK decides on an alliance it will be after his return from Bihar in December.

He says Vijay will go solo (without the alliance of Admk) and might topple the dmk government and he will be assisting vijay as an associate in the larger political development after the election to Bihar is over in December.

Even if dmk allaiance wins, it’s majority will be minuscule.

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Three challenges facing TN are

It is difficult for a rebel leader to continue in an established party like bjp or congress.

If admk goes alone, it will be advantageous to dmk in 2026.

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Annamalai is a rebel leader. There are many constraints for him in bjp , an established party.

NTK WILL GO ALONE AND CAPTURE MIN 15–20 % VOTES IN 2026 ASSEMBLY POLLS

BJP allaiance with Admk will pull down the voteshare of both the parties. Such an alliance will provide the ground for Vijay s rise .

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The next issue looming large on TN is heriditary politics. It was subtle during stalin s ascension but is alarmingly visible in Udayanidhi s case.

NTK faced many controversies in the past like this but still kept growing.

If bjp+ admk are aligning, Vijay has a bright chance provided he does active political touring and campaigning.

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It is my humble opinion that dmk will find the going very tough in 2026 and may lose to Admk alliance or Vijay with Seeman s Ntk playing as a big spoiler.

Mr Prashant Kishore made many observations on the political landscape, prevailing at present in TN in the capacity of an ex strategist for dmk in 2021

In 2024 some of his predictions went wrong. He said nda will reach > 350. It didn’t happen. He said bjp will cross 10% in TN . It happened.

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Corruption: Compared to other Indian states , contesting for mla seats in TN is a very costly affair. For MP seat it will be reaching many times in the coming days. It is a dangerous trend to TN. The political corruption is one of the highest in TN

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Rececently it made scathing &barbaric attacks on a barbaric ex tn leader but yet increased its voteshare from 6.35% in 2023 bypolls to 15.59% in 2025 bypolls in Erode where the barbarian was born.Hence the other parties together are debited with this 15–20 % and likely to share the remaining 80–85% among them.

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He throws some interesting tit bits on his association with Vijay. He says it is mutually beneficial to his own party in Bihar. He feels Biharis are addicted to Telugu movies. Vijay too commands a decent following in Bihar and will be useful to his Suraj party s campaign in Bihar

Recently this Bihari politician and Ex political strategist of dmk was present in Chennai city

NTK is a fringe party and not a major player ( I disagree )

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There is no reason to believe that vijay will split only anti dmk voters . He may likely to split the pro dmk vote also due to the heavy anti incumbency building against Stalin due to unfulfilled promises.

We can not depend on him entirely. But we also cannot deny the fact that he is more relevant to TN politics than national politics.Dmk fed him that knowledge with huge money. He has emitted a broad spectrum of light on TN political landscape which is rapidly changing in the past 8 months. Now he is using his ground knowledge of TN against dmk for an ambitious plan to strengthen TVK as well as his Suraj party in Bihar.

PK observes:

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Dmk has won the 2021 elections on some sky high promises which can not be implemented.

If people decided to topple the ruling government they don’t see the multi party contest as a factor

No party has a big constant vote share . If it is so no regime change would have taken place.

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